How can you be sure that Ukraine's civil strife won't spark the whole world?

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KievI am not that much of an expert on the situation in Russia, but I can tell you that the political upheaval in Ukraine is more than just an ordinary event. The civil strife that has turned the beautiful city of Kiev into a pile of ashes looks more like an armed military conflict than an anti-government protest deserves to be called.

More than anything else, Ukraine is located between the EU bloc and Russia, and is a strategic point through which pipelines run. The clash between the forces of the EU bloc plus the U.S.-backed western part and the Russian-backed eastern part is a global-scale problem in itself. This may give the impression that the Cold War is back, but that is not a false impression. History has shown this to be true.

To be honest, I don't think the Cold War ever ended. The collapse of the Soviet Union by Yeltsin, which began with Gorbachev's perestroika, was hailed as the end of the Cold War, and the world celebrated as if the United States and Russia had joined forces. But wasn't the reality that the Soviet Union simply collapsed of its own accord due to the economic collapse caused by socialism? The Soviet Union simply changed its name to Russia, and now Vladimir Putin, who is in power for a very long time, reigns as if he were the Czar of Russia. The U.S.S.R. and the U.S.S.R. are still at loggerheads, although they are not at war with each other. The Soviet Union has collapsed, but in terms of relations with neighboring countries, it boasts a dominant power that should be called the Russian bloc. Nothing has changed.

Such is the background to the current civil strife that Russia is no longer able to hold Ukraine in check. If Ukraine were to break up at this point, it would literally become a powder keg for the Cold War between the United States and Russia. It could even lead to World War III as the world splits into two again. Of course, it would also instantly ignite Asia, including Japan. Russia is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that is in line with China. Japan, of course, is on the U.S. side, so a war with China and Russia would begin based on the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. This is the worst-case scenario, but it is also a scenario that would proceed instantly if Ukraine were to break up.

This may sound overly pessimistic, but I would like to remind those who think that the problems in Ukraine are a fire on the other side of the river, that the balance of power in the world is under such tension. If you do so, you will feel that the civil strife in faraway Ukraine is actually something close to home for Japan.


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" How can you be sure that Ukraine's civil strife won't spread to the whole world? " 2 thoughts in

  1. If Russia gains effective control of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, it may persuade Turkey to blockade the Bosporus Strait to contain Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which uses the strait as a home port. Since this would not be tolerated by Russia, the conflict with NATO Europe would deepen, with Turkey as the starting point.
    Russia will support Syria, which borders Turkey to the south, in order to check Turkey, and will also intervene in the Kurdish problem, which has been smoldering by driving refugees into Turkey. Turkey would then be stuck in its own domestic problems, and would be reluctant to cooperate with NATO.
    Russia will then tighten its grip on Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet will remain on a state of alert and be used as a threat.
    Once the pipeline to the Ukrainian homeland and Europe through it is strangled, NATO's option becomes the control of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is the original military meaning of the Crimean Peninsula.
    Thus, an attack on the fleet becomes a reality.
    However, Turkey, which should serve as a rear base, is in a state of flux, making it difficult to continue the attack. At the same time, Russia's policy of opposing sanctions against Iran will be successful, and Iran will begin to become pro-Russian. At this point, Israel hardens its stance and begins bombing Iranian facilities. Iran implements a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. ・・・・
    From the Middle East to Eastern Europe becomes a conflict at once.
    World War III scenario.

    1. Tei, that is a very perceptive analysis.
      I, too, think that the difference is whether NATO will defend the Crimean Peninsula or Russia will take effective control of it.
      China is also targeting the Crimean Peninsula, so we will have to pay attention to Putin's future moves.

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